Make your supply
assumptions visible.
Explore a one-period supply interruption and a separate annual price sensitivity. All calculations use your inputs; no market prices or availability estimates are supplied.
Start with a
defined material.
Use tonnes of one product at a consistent specification. The defaults are illustrative inputs, not representative market conditions.
What the model assumes
- Demand is constant across 365 days.
- The interruption affects one supplier for one period.
- Replacement coverage applies to lost volume and arrives during the period.
- Inventory is usable, uncommitted stock at the same specification. It covers the remaining loss after replacements.
- No replenishment, ramp-up, demand reduction or correlated disruption is modelled.
- The price sensitivity assumes a full year of unchanged purchased volume, separately from the disruption calculation.
The volume that remains exposed.
Tonnes are displayed to one decimal; calculations retain full precision. USD totals are illustrative annual material spend, excluding freight, tax, inventory financing and other costs.
A calculated shortfall is not a forecast. Replacement coverage, inventory usability and price assumptions need independent verification.
How distributed is
your supplier mix?
Enter five shares totalling 100%. Combine smaller suppliers into the fifth category only if you accept that this overstates their contribution to concentration.
Every result has
a visible formula.
Daily demand = annual demand / 365
Lost volume = daily demand × interruption days × supplier share × loss fraction
Replacement = lost volume × qualified replacement fraction
Available buffer = daily demand × inventory days
Buffer used = minimum(lost volume − replacement, available buffer)
Shortfall = maximum(0, lost volume − replacement − buffer used)
Annual baseline spend = annual demand × unit price
Annual stress spend = baseline spend × (1 + annual price change)
These are original arithmetic planning tools. They are not company price-assessment models and use no external data feed. Calculations and downloads stay in your browser.